000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jul 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 83W, north of 02N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north of 06N between 78W and 80W. A tropical wave is along 107W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated convection is noted near the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 120W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 118W and 123W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W in Panama to 07N91W to 14N117W to 10N126W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted from 06N to 11N between 123W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A deep layered upper trough west of the area supports a surface trough from 30N123W to 24N130W, which is blocking high pressure across the NE Pacific from building into offshore waters. The resultant weak pressure gradient across the area is producing gentle to moderate NW winds west of Baja California, which will persist today. The trough will weaken and drift west tonight and Sunday, allowing high pressure to build modestly into the area through early next week. Freshening winds and a modest increase in seas is expected Sun through Mon night. Gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist in the Gulf of California this weekend, with 2-3 ft seas. High pressure building southward from the Gulf of Mexico has induced fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which will continue through Sun afternoon. No significant long-period swell is expected across the Mexican offshore zones the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east gap winds will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Mon. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will prevail over the waters south of 08N through Tue, with fresh winds expected this weekend. No significant long- period swell is expected in Central American and equatorial offshore zones the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered near 42N144W extends a ridge across the northern waters west of 125W. The gradient between the high and lower pressures associated with the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the convergence zone to 20N and west of 115W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across this area. Fresh northerly winds north of the area between 127W and 135W producing moderate north swell, with 8 ft seas north of 29N. This area of winds will weaken, with resultant seas diminishing to 6-7 ft by this afternoon. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Cross-equatorial SE swell maintains seas in the 6-7 ft range south of 08N and west of 115W. GFS global model continues to show development of a low pressure area in association with the tropical wave, presently near 120W, in 2 to 3 days as it moves westward over open waters. Winds to 25 kt and seas to 8 ft are likely to develop across north and east portions of this low by tonight or Sun. $$ Mundell