000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180312 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 81W, north of 03N into Panama, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted. A tropical wave is along 106W/107W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 109W and 114W. A tropical wave is along 120W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 116W and 126W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W in Panama to 08N91W to 14N114W to 09N126W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm south of the trough axis west of 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A deep layered upper trough west of the area supports a surface trough from 30N123W to 26N125W to 24N130W, and is blocking high pressure across the NE Pacific from building into the regional waters. The resultant weak pressure gradient across the area is producing gentle to moderate NW winds west of Baja California, which will persist through Saturday. The trough will weaken and drift west Saturday night and Sunday, and allow high pressure to build modestly into the area through early next week. Freshening winds and a modest increase in seas is expected Sun through Mon night. Gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist in the Gulf of California this weekend, with 2-3 ft seas. High pressure building southward from the Gulf of Mexico has induced fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and will continue through Sun afternoon. The strongest winds are expected overnight. No significant long-period swell is expected across the Mexican offshore zones the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east gap winds will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Mon. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will prevail over the waters south of 08N through Tue, with locally fresh winds expected this weekend. No significant long-period swell is expected in Central American and equatorial offshore zones the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered near 41N145W extends a ridge across the northern waters west of 125W. The gradient between the high and lower pressures associated with the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the convergence zone to 20N and west of 115W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across this area. Fresh to strong northerly winds located just north of the area between 127W and 135W is producing moderate north swell, with 8 ft seas north of 29N are 8 ft. This area of winds will weaken, with resultant seas diminishing to 6-7 ft by Sat afternoon. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Cross equatorial SE swell maintains seas in the 6-7 ft range south of 08N and west of 115W. Global models continue to suggest the development of a low pressure area in association with the tropical wave, presently near 120W, in 2 to 3 days as it moves westward over open waters. Winds to 25 kt and seas to 8 ft are likely to develop across north and east portions of this low by late Sat or Sun. $$ Mundell