000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2110 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 105W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N TO 21N between 104W AND 112W. A tropical wave is along 118W/119W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N TO 16N between 116W AND 124W. A tropical wave is along 140W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N TO 14.5N WEST OF 133W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W TO 04.5N80W TO 13.5N115W TO 07.5N128W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N128W TO 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted from 05N to 13.5N between 125W AND 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A deep layered upper trough to the west of the area supports a surface trough along about 124W, and is blocking high pressure across the NE Pacific from building into the regional waters. The resultant weak pressure gradient across the area is producing gentle to moderate NW winds west across the Baja California offshore waters, and will persist through Saturday. The trough will weaken and drift west late Saturday through Sunday and allow high pressure to build modestly into the area waters through early next week. This will produce freshening winds and a modest increase in seas Sun through Mon night. Gentle to moderate southerly winds across the Gulf of California through the weekend, with seas generally 2-4 ft. Northern portions of the tropical wave along 105W have shifted NW during the past 12 hours or so and continue to create active showers and thunderstorms across the waters offshore of Cabo Corrientes and the mouth of the Gulf of California. In the short term, look for this convection to shift W and NW this afternoon through tonight and into southern Baja California. High pressure building southward from the Gulf of Mexico has induced fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and will continue through Sun afternoon. The strongest winds are expected tonight. No significant long-period swell is expected across the Mexican offshore zones the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong northeast to east gap winds will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region through early Sat. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will prevail over the waters south of 08N through Tue, with locally fresh winds expected this weekend. No significant long-period swell is expected in Central American and equatorial offshore zones the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1032 mb high centered is located across the NE Pacific near 40N144W and extends a ridge across the northern waters west of 125W. The gradient between the high and lower pressures associated with the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the convergence zone to 20N and west of 115W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across this area. Fresh to strong N to NNE winds located just north of the area between 127W and 135W is producing moderate northerly swell moving into the local waters to the south, where seas north of 29N are 8 ft. This area is winds will weaken and resultant seas till diminishing to 6-7 ft by Sat afternoon. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Cross equatorial SE swell maintains seas in the 7-8 ft range south of 08N and west of 115W. Global models continue to suggest the development of a low pressure area in association with the tropical wave, presently near 118W/119W, in 2 to 3 days as it moves westward over open waters. Winds to 25 kt and seas to 8 ft are likely to develop across north and east portions of this low by late Sat or Sun. $$ Stripling