000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162120 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 100W from 03N north to inland Mexico just east of Acapulco. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Satellite imagery shows increasing numerous moderate to strong convection within 240 nm west of the wave from 10N to 14N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 240 nm east of the wave from 10N to 14N. A tropical wave has its axis along 111W from 04N to 18N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. A rather persistent broad area of disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm either side of the wave from 08N to 11N and within 30 nm of a line from 13N105W to 14N109W. The total precipitable water (TPW) imagery animation depicts a large pocket of moisture from 05N to 14N between 107W-114W. This wave is also slightly reflected at 700 mb where a northeast to east-southeast wind shift is indicated by the GFS. A tropical wave has its axis extending from 04N135W to 11N135W and to 18N134W. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave coincides well with the sharp northeast to southeast wind shift revealed in 700 mb model guidance. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted west of the wave to 137W from 08N to 10N. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of 12N134W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia west-southwest to across southern Panama and northwest from there to northwestern Panama and the southwest part of Costa Rica. to the coast at 10N85W. It continues westward to 10N100W to 11N108W to 09N116W to 12N121W and to 12N127W where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to east of a tropical wave near 11N133W. It resumes at 09N136W to beyond the area at 08N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm north of the trough between 92W-96W, also within 120 nm north of the trough between 114W-117W and within 60 nm south of the trough west of 137W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 10N between 121W-125W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 78W-82W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between low pressure over Mexico and high pressure to the west of Baja California will support fresh to locally strong winds near the west coast of Baja California today. High pressure building southward from the Gulf of Mexico will help for strong gap winds tonight through Sun afternoon across and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds may reach near gale force late at night tonight and Fri. No significant long-period swell are expected in the Mexican offshore zones for at least the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will continue into early Sat. Mainly moderate monsoonal southwest winds will remain over the waters south of 08N through the period, with locally fresh winds possible this weekend. No significant long-period swell is expected in the Central American and equatorial offshore zones for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridging that stretches southeastward from a strong 1032 mb high located well north-northwest of the area remains over the northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough, and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ and west of about 123W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Cross equatorial southerly swell is helping to maintain seas in the 7-8 ft range over the waters south of 08N and west of 113W. A trough is forecast to move over the waters north of 25N from 125W to 130W tonight into Fri, ushering in a set of northerly swell in the range of 7-9 ft into early Sat. Global models continue to suggest the development of low pressure in association to a tropical wave that is presently near 110W, in a few days as it moves westward across the central part of the basin. $$ Aguirre