000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161548 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jul 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 97W from 03N north to inland Mexico just west of Puerto Angel. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection has increased during the overnight hours within 180 nm west of the wave from from 09N to 15N. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm either side of the wave from 15N to 16N. A tropical wave has its axis along 110W from 03N to 18N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. A rather persistent broad area of disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 14N between 106W and 114W. The total precipitable water (TPW) imagery animation clearly depicts a bulge of moisture from 06N to 12N between 104W-112W. This wave is also reflected at 700 mb where a slight northeast to east- southeast wind shift is indicated by the GFS. A tropical wave has its axis extending from 03N133W to 11N132W and to 18N131W. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave coincides well with the GFS model 700 mb northeast to southeast wind shift. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted west of the wave to 136W from 10N to 14N. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of 10N133W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia westward to across central Panama and northern Costa Rica to the coast at 10N85W and continues westward to 10N99W to 11N106W to 09N116W to 12N121W and to 12N127W where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to west of a tropical near 11N131W. It resumes at 10N133W to beyond the area at 08N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm south of trough between 77W-81W, also within 150 nm south of the trough between 120W-124W and within 120 nm north of trough between 102W-103W. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm south of trough between 101W-105W, and within 240 nm south of trough between 114W-119W. Similar activity is within 30 nm of trough between 92W-95W, and north of the ITCZ within 30 nm of a line from 15N125W to 14N127W to 13N131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between low pressure over Mexico and high pressure to the west of Baja California will support fresh to locally strong winds near the west coast of Baja California today. High pressure building southward from the Gulf of Mexico will help for strong gap winds tonight through Sun afternoon across and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds may reach near gale force late at night tonight and Fri. No significant long-period swell are expected in the Mexican offshore zones for at least the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will continue into early Sat. Mainly moderate monsoonal southwest winds will remain over the waters south of 08N through the period, with locally fresh winds possible this weekend. No significant long-period swell is expected in the Central American and equatorial offshore zones for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridging that stretches southeastward from a strong 1032 mb high located well north-northwest of the area remains over the northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough, and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ and west of 125W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Cross equatorial southerly swell is helping for seas in the 7-8 ft range over the waters south of 05N and west of 110W. A trough is forecast to move over the waters north of 25N from 125W to 130W today, ushering in a set of northerly swell in the range of 7-9 ft into early Sat. Global models continue to suggest the development of low pressure in association to a tropical wave that is presently near 110W, in a few days as it moves westward across the central part of the basin. $$ Aguirre