000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 91W and north of 03N to inland Guatemala and far eastern Mexico. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N between the wave and 94W. A tropical wave has its axis along 104W from 03N to 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 13N between 101W-107W, while scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 14N between 101W- 107W. The entire area of convection has increased over the past 24 hours. A tropical wave has its axis along 125W/126W from 03N to 18N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N to 14N between the wave and 129W. A short-amplitude tropical wave has its axis along 132W from 02N to 13N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm west of the wave from 09N to 12N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 mb low over northwestern Colombia westward to across central Costa Rica and to 10N85W to 09N96W to 08N108W and northwestward to 12N126W and to 09N131W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 08N140W. Aside from the convection described above in association with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 113W-115W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 83W-88W, and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 135W-137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient related to a trough over Baja California is allowing for areas to the west to have fresh to locally strong northwest winds, which will continue through Fri. High pressure building into the Gulf of Mexico late Thu through Fri night will lead to strong gap winds in and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Thu through Sun night. While current guidance suggest near-gale conditions Thu and Fri nights, peak seas are anticipated to reach around 8 ft due to the limited area and duration of these gap winds. No significant long-period swell are expected in the Mexican offshore zones for at least the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region and will continue through tonight. Peak seas with these winds may reach 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal southwest winds will remain over the waters south of about 08N through through Fri night. No significant long-period swell is expected in the Central American and equatorial offshore zones for at least the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The earlier weak low that was near 18N122W has weakened to a rather ill-defined surface to low-level trough along a position from 19N122W to 15N123W. A slightly tight gradient between the trough and a ridge axis that extends southeastward into the north-central waters is allowing for fresh northeast winds to exist from 17N to 20N and between 122W and 127W. Seas of 5-6 ft are within this area of fresh winds. The trough is forecast to dissipate this afternoon. Weak low pressure of 1013 mb, remnants of former tropical cyclone Christina, is located near 23N139W, moving westward at 10 kt. The gradient between the low and strong high pressure of 1032 mb that is situated well NNW of the area is inducing an area of strong east winds to the north of the low along with seas in the range of 8-11 ft. The low will cross 140W this afternoon, allowing for the tight pressure gradient between it and high pressure ridging to its north to begin to relax. The strong east winds east of 140W will then response by diminishing into Thu. Seas up to 8 ft in decaying northeast to east swell will remain from 24N to 27N and west of 139W by late tonight, subsiding to less than 8 ft during Thu morning. Moderate to fresh south winds remain to the south of the monsoon trough between 115W and 135W. These winds are combining with some southeast swell resulting in combined seas of 8-10 ft. These seas will shift westward before diminishing Thu night. A weakening cold front is forecast to move over the waters north of 25N from 125W to 140W Thu, ushering in fresh northeast winds and seas possibly in the range of 7-10 ft into early Sat. Convection associated with the tropical wave currently along 104W, as described above, has increased in coverage during the past 24 hours. Indications from global model guidance are that low pressure is likely to form from this wave in a few days as it moves west-northwest or northwestward across the central part of the basin. $$ Aguirre