000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150825 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0830 UTC Wed Jul 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 89W and north of 03N to the El Salvador Guatemala border. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 83W and 91W. A tropical wave has its axis along 103W from 03N to Guerrero, Mexico. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 98W and 104W. A tropical wave axis is along 124W from 03N to 18N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 118W and 128W. A tropical wave has its axis along 130W from 02N to 13N. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N to 12N between 127W and 133W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11N111W to 12N140W. Aside from the convection described above in association with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 11N between 104W and 107W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 133W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient related to a trough over Baja California is allowing for areas to the west to have fresh to locally strong northwest winds, which will continue through Fri. High pressure building into the Gulf of Mexico late Thu through Fri night will lead to strong gap winds in and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Thu through Sun night. While current guidance suggest near-gale conditions Thu and Fri nights, peak seas are anticipated to reach around 8 ft due to the limited area and duration of these gap winds. No significant long-period swell are expected in the Mexican offshore zones for at least the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region and will continue through tonight. Peak seas with these winds may reach 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal southwest winds will remain over the waters S of 08N through through late week. No significant long-period swell are expected in the Central American and equatorial offshore zones for at least the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak low pressure 1012 mb is near 18N122W, moving west at 15 kt. Fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are located within 90 nm in the NW quadrant. This low is likely to open into a low pressure trough later this morning. Another weak low pressure 1012 mb is centered near 32N138W, moving west at 10 kt. The gradient between the low and 1032 mb high pressure well NNW of the area is inducing an area of strong E winds to the north of the low. The low will shift W of the area this afternoon, leading to diminishing winds E of 140W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in the area will subside to below 8 ft tonight. Moderate to fresh south winds remain to the south of the monsoon trough between 112W and 130W. These winds are combining with some southwest swell resulting in combined seas of 8 to 10 ft. These will progress westward before diminishing Thu night. A weakening cold front will move into waters N of 25N from 125W to 140W Thu, bringing fresh NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft into early Sat. Looking ahead, the tropical wave currently along 103W is quite vigorous. Low pressure is likely to form in association with this wave in a few days as it moves west-northwest across the basin. $$ KONARIK