000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1517 UTC Mon Jul 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little more concentrated overnight in association with a small low pressure located near 16.7N 110.5W, about 150 nm south-southeast of Socorro Island, Mexico. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection exists within 120 nm in the SW semicircle. Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development, and this system still has the potential to become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it moves generally westward at about 20 mph. However, conditions are expected to become less favorable for tropical cyclone development by Wednesday night. The system has a medium chance of development into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hr. Please refer to the latest Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is near 91W, from Guatemala southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 88W and 95W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 121W, from 19N southward, moving W at 10 kt. No significant deep convection is noted in association with this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N85W to 10N110W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection noted in the tropical waves and special features sections, scattered moderate convection is noted north of 06N east of 85W as well as from 07N-13N between 100W-112W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on a low pressure center offshore, moving quickly west and away from the coast, that has a potential for tropical development before Wed. A low pressure trough deepening over Baja California is producing fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of California today and tomorrow. Wind waves to reach 5 ft in the Gulf before diminishing on Wednesday. No significant long-period swell are expected in the Mexican offshore zones for at least the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region into late week, with locally strong winds likely during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas expected to peak near 7 ft. Moderate to fresh monsoonal SW winds will prevail over the waters S of 10N through mid-week with peak seas near 5 ft. No significant long-period swell are expected in the Central American and equatorial offshore zones for at least the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above on the fast moving low pressure well south of Mexico that has a medium potential of tropical storm formation into Wednesday. This low is expected to track west along roughly 17N this week. The remnant low of Cristina continues as a 1008 mb low near 21N129W. While no wind observations have been available this morning, it is likely that 30 kt peak winds continue in the northern semicircle. Scattered showers persist within 120 nm of the center. The low should gradually wind down and open up into a trough by Wednesday. Peak seas are currently near 12 ft, dropping to near 8 ft by Wednesday before moving west of our border by Thursday. A 1030 mb high is centered well northwest of our waters near 40N148W with ridging extending southwestward to 22N113W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough to the south is forcing NE moderate to fresh trades northwest of the the remnant low of Cristina. Moderate S winds south of the monsoon trough between 105W and 125W are combining with some SW swell to produce combined seas near 8 ft. These will progress westward before dimishing on Friday. $$ Landsea