000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130839 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0830 UTC Mon Jul 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina has degenerated into a remnant low pressure near 21N 127W. There are still winds within about 120 nm of the center on the north semicircle of 20 to 30 kt, with seas to around 12 ft. The remnants of Cristina are expected to continue to weaken today. Satellite data indicate that a small low pressure area located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, or near 17N 109W, has become less well defined since Sun. However, environmental conditions are still forecast to become more conducive for development, and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression during the next couple of days while it moves quickly west- northwestward to westward, well south of the coast of Mexico. Currently this feature is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 12N to 20N between 105W and 111W. There is currently a medium probability of tropical cyclone development of this low over the next 2 days. Please refer to the latest Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is near 90W, from 02N to near the El Salvador/Guatemala border, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 85W and 93W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 119W, from 02N to 20N, moving W at 10. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 115W and 121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N79W to 10N92W to 16N108W. It then resumes 15N125W to beyond 12N140W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves and special features sections, scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 78W and 85W. Also, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 97W and 105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on a low pressure center offshore, moving quickly west and away from the coast, that has a potential for tropical development before Wed. High pressure will prevail west of the Baja California peninsula into late week. This will support gentle to moderate NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula. As a low pressure trough near the Gulf of California deepens, fresh to locally strong SE winds are forecast in the Gulf through Tue. Locally strong winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early this morning as a tropical wave approaches the area. Another tropical wave crossing Thu may lead to another round of locally strong winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Generally fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region through late week. Winds may pulse to locally strong during the overnight hours. Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail into late week S of 10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell during this period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on the remnant low of Cristina. The pressure gradient from high pressure building in from the north and this low pressure will lead to fresh to strong NW winds N of 22N and W of 125W through Wed. Seas in this area may reach 8 to 10 ft. Farther to the east, a surface ridge dominates with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area, and seas of 4 to 6 ft. See Special Features section above on the fast moving low pressure well south of Mexico that has a medium potential of tropical storm formation into Wed. This low is expected to track west along roughly 17N this week. For waters south of the monsoon trough and west of 100W, seas from combined wind waves from fresh SW winds and long period SW swell may reach 8 to 10 ft early this week. $$ KONARIK