000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130333 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0300 UTC Mon Jul 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina is centered near 20.7N 126.5W at 13/0300 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Convection previously associated with Cristina has diminished. Cristina is forecast to continue weakening and become a remnant low Mon morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico have changed little in organization during the past several hours. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 22N between 103W and 110W.Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more favorable for development during the next couple of days, an d a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves quickly west- northwestward to westward, well south of the coast of Mexico. There is currently a high probability of tropical cyclone development of this low over the next 2 days. Please refer to the latest Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is near 89W, N of 2N and into El Salvador, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 85W and 90W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W, from 02N to 20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 115W and 121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N79W to 10N90W to low pres near 16N107W. It then resumes W of Cristina near 15N128W to 12N140W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves and special features sections, scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 100W and 107W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on a strengthening low pressure center south of Manzanillo, moving quickly west and away from the coast. High pressure will prevail west of the Baja California peninsula into late week. This will support gentle to moderate NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula. As a low pressure trough near the Gulf of California deepens, fresh to locally strong SE winds are forecast in the Gulf through Tue. Locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight as a tropical wave approaches the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Generally fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region into late week. Winds may pulse to locally strong during the overnight hours. Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail through mid-week S of 10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell during this period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Post Tropical Cyclone Cristina. Outside of Cristina, a surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area, and seas of 4 to 6 ft. Cristina will weaken to a remnant low Monday morning. The remnants of Cristina will move W-NW south of the ridge. Despite the weakening tropical system, the pressure gradient over the NW waters will tighten through early this week. This will result in a large area of fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and building seas. See Special features section above on the fast moving low pressure well south of Mexico that has a high potential of tropical storm formation through Tue. $$ KONARIK