000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122101 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1925 UTC Sun Jul 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 20.7N 125.5W at 12/2100 UTC moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to 24N between 121W and 130W. Cristina is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression tonight, and a remnant low Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. Low pressure has developed in association with the tropical wave near 105W. The low is embedded within the monsoon trough, and centered near 16N105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 20N between 103W and 110W. The latest ASCAT pass indicated strong to near gale force winds within 90 nm in the NE quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions are forecast to become gradually more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression in the next few days while the system moves quickly west- northwestward to westward, well south of the coast of Mexico. There is currently a medium probability of tropical cyclone development of this low over the next 2 days, and a high probability of development within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is near 86W, N of 3N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 85W and 87W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W, N of 03N, moving W at 15 kt. Low pressure has developed along this wave, and will be monitored for potential tropical cyclone development. Please see special features above for more information. The axis of a tropical wave is near 117W, from 02N to 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 115W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N79W to 09N89W to low pres near 16N105W. It then resumes W of Cristina near 15N128W to 12N140W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves and special features sections, scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 84W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 100W and 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure will prevail west of the Baja California peninsula through the middle of this week. This will support gentle to moderate NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California will freshen for the first half of the week as a low pressure trough deepens over the area. Strong to near gale force winds offshore winds will occur offshore from Acapulco to Manzanillo through this evening as an area of low pressure, currently near 16N105W moves westward. There is a medium probability of tropical cyclone development in association with this low over the next couple of days. Please see special features section above for more information. The low will move west of the forecast waters by Tue. Strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight as a tropical wave approaches the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region into mid-week. Winds may pulse to locally strong winds during the overnight hours. Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail through mid-week S of 10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell during this period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Outside of Cristina, a surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area, and seas of 4 to 6 ft. Cristina will weaken to a depression tonight, and a remnant low Monday. The remnants of Cristina will move W-NW south of the ridge. Despite the weakening tropical system, the pressure gradient over the NW waters will tighten through early this week. This will result in a large area of fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and building seas. Low pressure is likely to track W roughly along 15N during the early to middle portions of the week. $$ AL