000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121503 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1342 UTC Sun Jul 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 20.7N 124.4W at 12/1500 UTC moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 24N between 120W and 128W. Cristina is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression tonight, and a remnant low Monday morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. Low pressure has developed in association with a tropical wave. The low is embedded within the monsoon trough, and centered near 15N103W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 240 NM west semicircLe of the low. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 101W and 110W. Environmental conditions are likely to become more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression in two or three days while the system moves quickly west- northwestward to westward, well south of the coast of Mexico. There is currently a medium probability of tropical cyclone development of this low over the next 2 days, and a high probability of development within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is near 85W, N of 3N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 84W and 87W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W, N of 03N, moving W at 15 kt. Low pressure has developed along this wave, and will be monitored for potential tropical cyclone development. Please see special features above for more information. The axis of a tropical wave is near 116W, from 02N to 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 112W and 118W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 139W from 01N to 19N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 135W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 10N85W to 10N94W to low pres near 15N103W to 19N118W. It then resumes W of Cristina near 18N127W to 12N140W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves and special features sections, scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 84W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure will prevail west of the Baja California peninsula through the middle of this week. This will support gentle to moderate NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the Gulf of California today, but winds will freshen over the Gulf of California for the first half of the week as a low pressure trough deepens over the area. Fresh to locally strong offshore winds will occur offshore from Acapulco to Manzanillo through early Mon as an area of low pressure moves westward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region into mid-week. Some locally strong winds may pulse during the overnight hours. Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail through mid-week S of 10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell during this period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Outside of Cristina, a surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area, and seas of 4 to 6 ft. Cristina will continue to weaken the next couple of days as the system moves W-NW south of the ridge. Despite the weakening tropical system, the pressure gradient over the NW waters will tighten through early this week. This will result in a large area of fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and building seas. Low pressure is likely to track W roughly along 15N during the early to middle portions of the week. $$ AL