000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120849 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0900 UTC Sun Jul 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 20.7N 123.3W at 12/0900 UTC moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. A weakening trend is forecast to continue while Cristina tracks to the WNW, and Cristina is likely to become a tropical depression by Sunday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. A low pressure area and associated tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are producing numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 08N to 19N between 96W and 106W. Although upper- level winds are currently only marginally conducive for the development of a tropical cyclone, environmental conditions are likely to become more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression in two or three days while the system moves quickly west- northwestward to westward, well south of the coast of Mexico. There is currently a medium of tropical cyclone development in association with this wave over the next 2 days, and a high probability of development within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is near 87W, from N of 3N to Nicaragua, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over forecast waters from 02N to 11N between 78W and 88W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W, from 02N to 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 108W and 117W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 139W from 01N to 19N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 130W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N79W to 10N95W to 16N113W. It then resumes W of Cristina near 13N124W to 12N140W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves and special features sections, scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 10N between 89W and 96W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure building west of the Baja California peninsula will prevail through the middle of this week. This will support gentle to moderate NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the Gulf of California today, but winds will freshen over the Gulf of California for the first half of the week as a low pressure trough deepens over the area. Fresh to locally strong offshore winds will occur offshore from Acapulco to Manzanillo through early Mon as low pressure develops and then moves west of the area. A strong tropical wave may impact the waters off southern Mexico for the latter half of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region into mid-week. Some locally strong winds may pulse during the overnight hours. Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail through mid-week S of 10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell during this period. A strong tropical wave may impact the waters off the northern parts of Central America Wed or Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Outside of Cristina, a surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area, and seas of 4 to 6 ft. Cristina will continue to weaken the next couple of days as the system moves W-NW south of the ridge. Despite the weakening tropical system, the pressure gradient over the NW waters will tighten through early this week. This will result in a large area of fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and building seas. Low pressure is likely to track W roughly along 15N during the early to middle portions of the week. $$ KONARIK