000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112047 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1835 UTC Sat Jul 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 20.6N 121.0W at 11/2100 UTC moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 12N to 22N between 112W and 124W. A weakening trend is forecast to continue while Cristina tracks to the WNW. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is near 82W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over forecast waters N of 05N E of 85W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, N of 01N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 98W and 102W. There is currently a medium probability of tropical cyclone development in association with this wave over the next 2 days, and a high probability of development within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W, from 02N to 20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 104W and 111W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 136W from 02N to 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 130W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 10N85W to 10N96W to 16N112W. It then resumes W of Cristina near 13N125W to beyond 12N140W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 10N E of 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 92W and 116W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Cristina has moved west of the forecast waters. High pressure building west of the Baja California peninsula in the wake of Cristina will prevail through the middle of next week. This will support gentle to moderate NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the Gulf of California this weekend. Winds will freshen over the Gulf of California for the first half of next week. Fresh mainly offshore winds are likely in association with a strong tropical wave offshore southern Mexico the remainder of the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region during the next several days. Winds may pulse locally strong during the evening Sun as a tropical wave enters the area. Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail into the middle of next week S of 10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell during this period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Outside of Cristina, a surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area, and seas of 5 to 7 ft in decaying swell. Cristina will continue to weaken the next couple of days as the system moves W-NW south of the ridge. Despite the weakening tropical system, the pressure gradient over the NW waters will tighten through early next week. This will result in a large area of fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and building seas. $$ AL