000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111509 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1349 UTC Sat Jul 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 20.6N 119.7W at 11/1500 UTC moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm east of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 13N to 23N between 114W and 122W. A weakening trend is forecast to begin today, while Cristina continues to move WNW, well offshore of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is near 81W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over forecast waters N of 04N E of 85W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 97/98W, N of 01N. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted N of 07N between 96W and 100W. Environmental conditions are expected to become favorable for the development of a tropical depression in association to this tropical wave in two to three days. There is currently a low probability of tropical cyclone development over the next 2 days, and a high probability of development within the next 5 days. The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W, from 02N to 20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 103W and 110W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 135W from 02N to 19N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 12N between 130W and 138W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 10N85W to 18N112W. It then resumes W of Cristina near 13N124W to beyond 10N140W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 11N E of 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 92W and 111W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection as noted from 05N to 13N between 125W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Cristina has moved west of the forecast waters. High pressure building in the wake of Cristina will support moderate NW winds along most of the coast this weekend. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the Gulf of California this weekend. Winds will freshen over the Gulf of California for the first half of next week. Fresh mainly offshore winds are likely in association with a strong tropical wave offshore southern Mexico this weekend. This wave is described in more detail in the tropical waves section above. Numerous thunderstorms are also anticipated in this area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region during the next several days. Winds may pulse locally strong during the evening Sun as a tropical wave enters the area. Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail into the middle of next week S of 10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell during this period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Outside of Cristina, a surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area, and seas of 5 to 7 ft in decaying swell. Cristina will weaken this weekend as the system moves W-NW south of the ridge. Despite the weakening tropical system, the pressure gradient over the NW waters will tighten this weekend through early next week. This will result in a large area of fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and building seas. $$ AL