521 AXPZ20 KNHC 110836 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0900 UTC Sat Jul 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 20.4N 118.3W at 11/0900 UTC moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center in the S semicircle, with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 90 nm in the N semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 270 nm E semicircle, and from 12N to 19N between 112W and 121W. A weakening trend should begin today, while Cristina continues to move WNW, well offshore of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave that is mainly in the western Caribbean extends S through the Gulf of Panama along 80W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over forecast waters from 04N to 11N between 77W and 87W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W, N of 01N into Oaxaca, Mexico. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 93W and 98W. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable for the development of a tropical depression in a few days while the system moves quickly westward well south of the coast of Mexico. There is currently a low probability of tropical cyclone development over the next 2 days, and a high probability of development within the next 5 days. The axis of a tropical wave is near 107W, N of 02N to near Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 103W and 109W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 133W from 02N to 19N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N to 13N between 130W and 138W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N80W to 11N104W. It then resumes W of Cristina near 15N121W to beyond 10N140W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 97W and 103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 136W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Cristina now has moved west of the offshore waters, so thunderstorms and winds will diminish this morning. High pressure building in behind Christina will provide for moderate NW winds along most of the coast this weekend. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the Gulf of California this weekend. Winds will freshen over the Gulf of California for the first half of next week. Fresh mainly offshore winds are likely in association with a strong tropical wave offshore southern Mexico this weekend. This wave is described in more detail in the tropical waves section above. Numerous thunderstorms are also anticipated in this area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region during the next several days, and winds may pulse locally strong during the evening Sun. Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail into the middle of next week S of 10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell during this period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Outside of Cristina, a surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area, and seas of 5 to 7 ft in decaying swell. Cristina will weaken this weekend as the system moves W-NW south of the ridge. Despite the weakening tropical system, the pressure gradient over the NW waters will tighten this weekend through early next week. This will result in a large area of fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and building seas. $$ KONARIK