091 AXPZ20 KNHC 110317 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0300 UTC Sat Jul 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 20.1N 116.8W at 11/0300 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted with 120 nm of the center in all quadrants except NW, where it is confined to within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is also located from 12N to 19N between 110W and 120W. A weakening trend should begin tonight, while Cristina continues to move WNW, well offshore of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has emerged into the Gulf of Panama along 78W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over forecast waters from 05N to 10N between 77W and 86W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W, N of 01N through the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 91W and 98W. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable for the development of a tropical depression is association with this wave through early next week while the system moves quickly westward well south of the coast of Mexico. There is currently a low probability of tropical cyclone development over the next 2 days, and a high probability of development within the next 5 days. The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W, N of 02N to into Jalisco, Mexico, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 101W and 105W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 132W from 02N to 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 13N between 130W and 136W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N82W to 10N103W. It then resumes W of Cristina near 15N120W to beyond 10N140W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 105W and 115W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 136W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Outer bands of convection associated with Cristina will pass through the offshore waters, with squalls and heavy rainfall. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the Gulf of California this weekend. Winds will freshen over the Gulf of California for the first half of next week. Periods of fresh winds are possible in association with a tropical wave offshore southern Mexico, described in the tropical waves section above. Numerous thunderstorms are also anticipated in this area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region during the next several days, and winds may pulse locally strong during the evening hours, especially Sun. Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail through early next week S of 10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell during this period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Outside of Cristina, a surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area, and seas of 5 to 7 ft in decaying swell. Cristina will weaken this weekend as the system moves W-NW south of the ridge. Despite the weakening tropical system, the pressure gradient over the NW waters will tighten this weekend through early next week. This will result in a large area of fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and building seas. $$ KONARIK