000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102053 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2020 UTC Fri Jul 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 19.8N 115.5W at 10/2100 UTC moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center of Cristina. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 11N to 20N between 109W and 120W. A weakening trend should begin by tonight, while Cristina continues to move WNW, well offshore of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W/93W, N of 02N , moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over forecast waters N of 09N between 90W and 96W. This tropical wave will be closely monitored as conditions will be favorable for tropical cyclone development in association to this perturbation. There is currently a low probability of tropical cyclone development over the next 2 days, and a high probability of development within the next 5 days. The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W, N of 03N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 100W and 105W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 130W from 02N to 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 12N between 128W and 132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 10N85W to 08N100W. It then resumes W of Cristina near 16N118W to 10N140W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 02N E of 86W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 91W and 115W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 127W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Outer bands of convection associated with Cristina will pass through the offshore waters, with squalls and heavy rainfall. A ridge across the waters W of Baja California is retracting westward as Cristina moves into the area. The ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the Gulf of California this weekend. Winds will freshen over the northern Gulf of California for the first half of next week, with strong winds possible Mon night through Tue. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region during the next several days, and winds may pulse locally strong during the evening hours. Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail into early next week S of 10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Outside of Cristina, a surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area, and seas of 5 to 7 ft in decaying swell. Cristina will weaken this weekend as the system moves W-NW south of the ridge. Despite the weakening tropical system, the pressure gradient over the NW waters will tighten this weekend into early next week. This will result in a large area of fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and building seas. $$ AL