000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101509 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1327 UTC Fri Jul 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 19.1N 114.2W at 10/1500 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center of Cristina. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 12N to 20N between 106W and 113W. Cristina is no longer forecast to reach hurricane intensity. A weakening trend should begin by tonight, while Cristina continues to move WNW, well offshore of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W, N of 02N , moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 87W and 93W. This tropical wave will be one to watch the next few days. Conditions will be favorable for tropical cyclone development in association to this perturbation. There is currently a low probability of tropical cyclone development over the next 2 days, and a high probability of development within the next 5 days. The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W, N of 03N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 100W and 103W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 128W from 02N to 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 12N between 125W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N78W to 08N100W to 16N107W. It then resumes W of Cristina near 15N123W to 10N140W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 02N E of 83W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 05N to 08N between 91W and 118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 09N to 13N between 121W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Outer bands of convection associated with Cristina will pass through the offshore waters, with squalls and heavy rainfall. A ridge across the waters W of Baja California is retracting westward as Cristina moves into the area. The ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Expect periods of fresh southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California through this afternoon as the pressure gradient remains tight. Fresh southerly winds will return to the area for the first half of next week, with some strong winds possible Mon night through Tue. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region during the next several days, and winds may pulse locally strong during the evening hours. Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail into early next week S of 10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Outside of Cristina, a surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area, and seas of 5 to 7 ft in decaying swell. Cristina will weaken this weekend as the system moves W-NW south of the ridge. Despite the weakening tropical system, the pressure gradient over the NW waters will tighten this weekend into early next week. This will result in a large area of fresh to strong N-NE winds and building seas. $$ AL