000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100847 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0900 UTC Fri Jul 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 18.9N 113.0W at 10/0900 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 180 nm S semicircle, 60 nm NW quadrant, and 90 nm NE quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along located along 2 bands, from 16N110W to 07N113W and from 15N112W to 12N125W. Cristina could become a hurricane later today, however, a weakening trend should begin by tonight, while Cristina continues to move WNW, well offshore of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 87W, N of 02N into Nicaragua, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 83W and 93W. A tropical wave is along 100W, N of 03N into Guerrero, Mexico, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 95W and 102W. A tropical wave is along 127W from 02N to 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 14N between 125W and 129W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the Colombia/Panama border near 10N76W to 08N92W to 09N105W, then resumes W of Cristina near 16N119W to low pressure near 15N123W to 11N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side of the axis between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Outer bands of convection associated with Cristina will pass through the offshore waters, with squalls and heavy rainfall. A ridge across the waters W of Baja California is retracting westward as Cristina moves into the area. The ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Expect periods of fresh southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California through this afternoon as the pressure gradient remains tight. Fresh southerly winds will return to the area for the first half of next week, with some strong winds possible Mon night through Tue. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf of California. Fresh offshore winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. A strong tropical wave located over Central America is expected to move over the far eastern Pacific in a day or so. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form early next week while it moves quickly westward well south of the coast of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region during the next several days, and winds may pulse locally strong during the evening hours. Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail into early next week S of 10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. A surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area, with seas of 5 to 7 ft in decaying swell. A 1011 mb low pressure area is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 15N123W. This low pressure has continued to weaken, but locally fresh N winds remain in the western semicircle of the low. The low will dissipate later today as Cristina moves closer to it. As Cristina moves W-NW into the ridge, the pressure gradient over the NW waters will tighten this weekend into early next week resulting in a large area of fresh to strong N-NE winds and building seas, even though Cristina will be weakening by then. $$ KONARIK