000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100318 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0315 UTC Fri Jul 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 18.4N 111.9W at 10/0300 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of all quadrants with scattered moderate convection located within 360 nm of the SE quadrant. Cristina is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane early Fri morning, then weaken back to a tropical storm early Sat, and continue to move WNW, well offshore of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 86W, N of 03N into western Panama and the western Caribbean Sea, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 83W and 91W. A tropical wave is along 98W, N of 04N into southern Mexico near the Tehuantepec region, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 93W and 101W. A tropical wave is along 125W from 03N to 19N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 14N between 121W and 123W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W to 09N89W to 07N96W to 11N103W, then resumes W of Cristina near 16N116W to low pressure near 16N121.5W to 11N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 123W and 129W, and within 120 nm either side of the axis between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Outer bands of convection associated with Cristina will pass through the offshore waters, with squalls and heavy rainfall. A ridge across the waters W of Baja California is retracting westward as Cristina moves into the area. The ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Expect periods of fresh southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California through Fri as the pressure gradient tightens across the area, then again early next week. Winds will increase to fresh to strong Tue and Tue night. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region during the next several days, briefly reaching fresh to strong this evening around sunset. Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters S of 10N through Sat, and then again early next week. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. A surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area, with seas of 5 to 7 ft in decaying swell. A 1010 mb low pressure area is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 16N121W. This low pressure has continued to weaken and all convection previously associated with it have diminished. Fresh N winds are located in the western semicircle of the low. The low will dissipate on Fri as Cristina moves closer to it. Any remnant seas will merge into the broader SW monsoonal flow and fresh swell SE-S of Cristina. A strong tropical wave over central America is expected to move over the far eastern Pacific by the weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression will likely form early next week while the system moves quickly westward well south of the coast of Mexico. As Cristina moves W-NW into the ridge, the pressure gradient over the NW waters will tighten this weekend into early next week resulting in a large area of fresh to strong N-NE winds and building seas, even though Cristina will be weakening by then. $$ KONARIK