000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091537 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jul 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 17.4N 110.2W at 09/1500 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm in the E quadrant and 180 nm in the S quadrant. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 300 nm in the SE semicircle and between 60 nm and 240 nm W quadrant. A far outer band of scattered moderate convection is noted between 360 nm and 720 nm in the E quadrant. Cristina is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane Fri morning, and continue to move WNW, well offshore of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 82W, N of 03N into western Panama and the western Caribbean Sea, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10.5N between 83W and 89W, with additional deep convection in the western Caribbean Sea and across portions of Honduras and Nicaragua. A tropical wave is along 94W, N of 03N into southern Mexico near the Tehuantepec region, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 91W and 98W, and from 10N to 11.5N between 94W and 96W. A tropical wave is along 121W from 05N to 20N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 119W and 121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near the Panama/Costa Rica border from 09N83W to 07N97W to 11N103W, then resumes W of Cristina from 16N115W to low pressure near 16N121W to 12N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong from 08N to 13N between 98W and 101W, from 11.5N to 13N between 123W and 129W, and within 120 nm either side of axis between 129W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Outer bands of convection associated with Cristina will pass through the offshore waters, with squalls and heavy rainfall. A ridge across the waters W of Baja California will begin to retract westward today as Cristina approaches the area. The ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Northerly swell in the waters N of Punta Eugenia will subside this morning across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro, with seas becoming 6 to 7 ft. Expect periods of fresh southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California through Fri as the pressure gradient tightens across the area, then again early next week. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region during the next several days. Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters S of 10N through Sat. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. A surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area. Altimeter data indicated lingering 8-9 ft seas in mixed NE and SW swell, while an observation from ship D5QV7 reported 8 ft seas across the W-central waters N of the monsoon trough. This area of seas will contract and decay through the next couple of days. A 1008 mb low pressure area is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 16N121W. Associated convection has decreased, however a lingering area of fresh winds and 8 to 9 ft seas are found mainly on the SE side of the low. The low will dissipate by early Fri with associated conditions improving. An area of low pressure is forecast to form S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico. $$ Lewitsky