000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090905 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jul 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 16.8N 109.4W at 09/0900 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is within 90 nm NE semicircle and 120 nm SW semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 150 nm NE semicircle and 480 nm SW semicircle. Cristina is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by early Fri morning, and continue to move WNW, well offshore of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 81W north of 03N into Panama, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is is from 07N to 09N between 82W and 87W. A tropical wave is along 92W/93W, N of 02N into southern Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 08N between 92W and 93W. A tropical wave is along 121W/122W from 01N to 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 14N between 118W and 125W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 10N84W to 07N98W, then resumes from 16N117W to low pressure near 16N121W to 14N123W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 128W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. Latest scatterometer data indicates winds have decreased NE of the center along the coast of Mexico south of Cabo Corrientes. Outer bands of convection associated with Cristina will pass through the offshore waters, with squalls and heavy rainfall. A ridge across the waters west of Baja California will begin to retract westward today as Cristina approaches the area. The ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Northerly swell in the waters N of Punta Eugenia will subside this morning across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro, with seas becoming 6-7 ft. Expect periods of fresh southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California through Fri as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region during the next several days. Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters S of 10N through Sat. Seas will be mainly 4 to 6 ft in S-SW swell through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. A surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area. Northerly swell across much of the region N of 20N W of 120W will subside today. A 1011 mb low pressure area is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 16N121W. Associated convection has decreased significantly during the past 12 hours, and this low pressure is not expected to become a tropical cyclone, as environmental conditions become increasingly unfavorable during the next day or so. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico. $$ Mundell