000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090312 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jul 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 16.4N 108.6W at 09/0300 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is within 90 nm NE semicircle and 120 nm SW semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 360 nm NE semicircle and 600 nm SW semicircle. Cristina is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by early Fri morning, and continue to move NW, well offshore of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 79W north of 03N into Panama, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection described in the section below. A tropical wave is along 91W, N of 02N into Guatemala, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection described in the section below. A tropical wave is along 121W from 01N to 19N, moving W at 10 kt. Associated convection described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 09N84W to 09N91W to 14N102W, then resumes from 16N115W to low pressure near 16N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 81W and 92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted from 10N to 13N between 128W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. While the strongest winds and seas associated with Cristina are forecast to remain well away from the coast of Mexico, a swath of fresh to strong winds northeast of the center is occurring along the coast of Mexico between 103W and 108W south of Cabo Corrientes due to funneling effects near the coast. Outer bands of convection associated with Cristina will pass through these offshore waters, with squalls and heavy rainfall. A ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through Thu, retracting westward on Thu as Cristina approaches the area. The ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Northerly swell in the waters N of Punta Eugenia will subside through Thu morning across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro, with seas becoming 5-7 ft. Expect periods of fresh southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California through the week as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf of California. Two episodes of fresh northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night through Fri, and Sun night through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region during the next several days. Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters S of 10N through Sat. Seas will be mainly 4 to 6 ft in S-SW swell through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. A surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area. Northerly swell across much of the region N of 20N W of 120W will subside through Thu. A 1011 mb low pressure area is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 16N120W. Associated convection is described above. A small area of fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft are associated with this low. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next two days before environmental conditions become unfavorable. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico. $$ Mundell