000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082105 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jul 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 16.0N 107.7W at 08/2100 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 90 nm in the NE semicircle and 120 nm in the SW semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 420 nm in the NE semicircle and from 05N to 13N between 104W and 117W. Cristina is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by early Fri morning, and continue to move NW, well offshore of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 77W/78W along the Pacific coast of Colombia northward to across the SW Caribbean Sea, moving W at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. A tropical wave is along 89W/90W, N of 02N into central El Salvador moving W at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. A tropical wave is along 121W from 02N to 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 09N78W to 08N89W to 07N100W, then resumes from 13N110W to low pressure near 15N121W to 11N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 78W and 88W, and from 11N to 14N between 125W and 133W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 134W and 136W, and from 10.5N to 12N between 135W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. While the strongest winds and seas associated with Cristina are forecast to remain well away from the coast of Mexico, a swath of fresh to strong SE winds northeast of the center is occurring along the coast of Mexico between 103W and 108W just S of Cabo Corrientes due to funneling effects near the coast. Outer bands of convection of Cristina will pass through these offshore waters, with squalls and heavy rainfall. A ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through Thu, retracting westward on Thu as Cristina approaches the area. The ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Strong NW winds west of California generated 8-9 ft northerly swell in the waters N of Punta Eugenia since Tue. The swell will subside as it propagates southward across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro tonight, with seas becoming 5-7 ft. Expect pulsing fresh southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California through the week as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf of California. NW-NW winds will increase to moderate to fresh offshore of Baja California early next week. Fresh northerly gap winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night through early Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in the Papagayo region during the next several days. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters S of 10N through Sat, then slightly weaker thereafter. Seas will be mainly 4 to 6 ft in S-SW swell through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. A surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area. Northerly swell will spread across much of the region N of 20N W of 120W today, decaying through early Thu. A 1010 mb low pressure area is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 15N121W. Associated convection is described with the monsoon trough above. A small area of fresh to strong winds and seas to 10 ft are associated with this low. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next two days before environmental conditions become unfavorable. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week or this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico. $$ Lewitsky