000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081548 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 14.6N 106.9W at 08/1500 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm of center except within 180 nm S quadrant. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 120 nm NE semicircle and 240 nm SW semicircle, from 13N to 20N between 99W and 109W, and from 06N to 14N between 106W and 118W. Cristina is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by early Thu, and continue to move NW, well offshore of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 77W along the Pacific coast of Colombia northward to across the SW Caribbean Sea, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 04N between 79W and 84W. A tropical wave is along 88W/89W, N of 02N into Central America, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 88W and 91W. A tropical wave is along 119W/120W from 02N to 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 19N between 118W and 121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the SW Caribbean Sea near 11N76W to 07N90W to 10N102W, then resumes from 14N110W to low pressure near 15.5N119W to low pressure near 14N123W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 123W and 133W. In addition, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 21N to 24N between the coast of Mexico and 108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. While the strongest winds and seas associated with Cristina are forecast to remain well away from the coast of Mexico, a swath of fresh to strong SE winds northeast of the center is occurring along the coast of Mexico between 103W and 108W just S of Cabo Corrientes due to funneling effects near the coast. Outer bands of convection of Cristina will pass through these offshore waters, with squalls and heavy rainfall. A ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through Thu, retracting westward on Thu as Cristina approaches the area. The ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Strong NW winds west of California generated 8-9 ft northerly swell in the waters N of Punta Eugenia since Tue. The swell will subside as it propagates southward across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro later today, with seas becoming 5-7 ft. Expect pulsing fresh southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California through the week as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf of California. Fresh northerly gap winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night through early Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in the Papagayo region during the next several days. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters S of 10N through Sat, then slightly weaker thereafter. Seas will be mainly 4 to 6 ft in S-SW swell through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. A surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area. Northerly swell will spread across much of the region N of 20N W of 120W today, decaying through early Thu. A 1008 mb low pressure area is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 14N123W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the SE semicircle of the low. A small area of fresh to strong winds and seas to 10 ft are associated with this low. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next two days before environmental conditions become unfavorable. A area of low pressure is expected to form south of Tehuantepec late this week or this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development this weekend into early next week as the system moves westward, well S of the coast of Mexico. $$ Lewitsky