000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jul 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 13.9N 106.5W at 08/0900 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center except 90 nm in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 480 nm in the SW semicircle. Cristina is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Thu, and continue to move W-NW, well offshore of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 87W, north of 02N into Central America, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 85W and 88W. A tropical wave is along 117W from 03N to 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 113W and 117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 11N97W, then resumes near 16N113W to 1011 mb low pressure near 16N120W to 1011 mb low pressure near 08N136W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 119W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. While the strongest winds and seas associated with Cristina are forecast to remain well away from the coast of Mexico, a swath of fresh to strong SE winds northeast of the center is, based on scatterometer data, occurring along the coast of Mexico between 100W and 104W due to funneling effects near the coast. Outer bands of convection of Cristina will pass through these offshore waters, with squalls and heavy rainfall. A ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through Thu, retracting westward on Thu as Cristina approaches the area. The ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Strong NW winds west of California generated 8-9 ft northerly swell in the waters N of Punta Eugenia since Tue. The swell will subside as it propagates southwward across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro today, with seas becoming 5-7 ft. Expect pulsing fresh southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California on Fri as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf of California. Fresh northerly gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in the Papagayo region during the next several days. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters S of 10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 6 ft in S-SW swell through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. A surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area. Northerly swell will spread across much of the region N of 20N W of 120W today, decaying through early Thu. A 1011 mb low pressure area is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 16N120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted southwest of the low center. A small area of fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft are associated with this low. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next two days before environmental conditions become unfavorable. A area of low pressure is expected to form south of Tehuantepec late this week or this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development this weekend as the system moves westward, well S of the coast of Mexico. $$ Mundell