000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080310 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jul 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 13.8N 105.3W at 08/0300 UTC moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center except 90 nm in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 480 nm in the SW semicircle. Cristina is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane Wed night, and continues to move W-NW well offshore of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 85W, north of 02N into Central America, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and 86W. A tropical wave is along 116W from 04N to 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 113W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 11N97W, then resumes near 15N113W to 1011 mb low pressure near 15N122W to 1011 mb low pressure near 08N136W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 119W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. While the strongest winds and seas associated with Cristina are forecast to remain well away from the coast of Mexico, a swath of fresh to strong SE winds northeast of the center is expected to be observed from west of the Tehuantepec region to just south of Cabo Corrientes through Wed night due to funneling effects near the coast. Outer bands of convection of Cristina will pass through the offshore waters, with squalls and heavy rainfall. A ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through early Thu, retracting westward on Thu as Cristina approaches the area. The ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Strong NW winds west of California are sending fresh northerly swell into the waters N of Punta Eugenia with seas of 8 to 9 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed with seas of 5-7 ft. Expect pulsing fresh to locally strong southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California through Sat as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf of California. A moderate to fresh northerly gap wind event is expected to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in the Papagayo region during the next several days. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters S of 10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 6 ft in S-SW swell through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. A surface ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 110W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds dominate this area. Northerly swell is propagating into the northern forecast waters with seas of 7- 9 ft. This swell will spread across much of the region N of 20N W of 120W overnight, then decaying through early Thu. A 1011 mb low pressure area is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 15N122W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 119W and 132W. An area of fresh to strong winds and 8-10 ft seas will accompany this low. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days while it drifts generally northward. By late this week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. The gap wind event mentioned above for the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend may help an area of low pressure to form south of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low this weekend while the system moves westward well S of the coast of Mexico. $$ Mundell