000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072148 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 13.0N 103.8W at 07/2100 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 420 nm in the NE and E quadrants, within 480 nm in the SW quadrant, and within 300 nm elsewhere of the center. Cristina is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane Wed night as it continues to move W-NW well offshore of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 83W from 03N to across the border of Panama/Costa Rica and into the western Caribbean Sea, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and 86W. A tropical wave is along 114W/115W from 05N to 19N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 1010 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07N83W to 12N99W, then resumes near 12N106W to 16N116W to 1008 mb low pressure near 14.5N122.5W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 125W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. While the strongest winds and seas associated with Cristina are forecast to remain away from the coast of Mexico, a swath of fresh to strong E-SE winds will propagate from W of the Tehuantepec region tonight to just S of Cabo Corrientes by Wed night due to funneling between the tropical cyclone and the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico. In addition, outer bands of convection of Cristina will likely rotate through the offshore waters and potentially along the coast with squalls and heavy rainfall. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu, retracting as Cristina moves closer to the area. The ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Strong NW winds off of the coast of California are sending fresh northerly swell into the waters N of Punta Eugenia with seas of 8 to 9 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed with seas of 5-7 ft. Expect pulsing fresh to locally strong southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California through the end of the week as the pressure gradient tightens across the area between the ridge and lower pressures over the lower Colorado River Valley. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf of California. Winds offshore of Cabo Corrientes and SE-S will become W-NW at moderate to fresh levels Fri night through Sat night as the local pressure gradient tightens briefly. A moderate to fresh northerly gap wind event is expected to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the next several days, reaching strong briefly Thu night. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters S of 09N-10N E of 100W. Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft in S-SW swell across the waters through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. A surface ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 110W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds dominate this area per recent scatterometer data. Fresh northerly swell is propagating across the northern forecast waters with seas of 7-10 ft per recent altimeter data. This swell will spread across much of the region N of 20N W of 120W by Wed morning, decaying through early Thu. A 1008 mb low pressure area is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 14.5N122.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the N quadrant, 390 nm in the E quadrant, and 150 nm in the SW semicircle. An area of fresh to strong winds and 8-10 ft seas will accompany this low. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days while it drifts generally northward. By late this week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. As mentioned above, a gap wind event is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this weekend through the weekend. This event may help an area of low pressure to form S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low this weekend while the system moves westward well S of the coast of Mexico. $$ Lewitsky