000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071539 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jul 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 12.2N 102.8W at 07/1500 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 30 nm in the NE semicircle and within 90 nm in the SW semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted between 60 nm and 300 nm in the NE and SW quadrants, and between 60 nm and 180 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere between 240 nm and 360 nm in the nw semicircle. Cristina is forecast to strengthen and reach hurricane status by Wed evening while it continues W-NW for the next few days, keeping the core of the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 113W/114W from 06N to 18N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 13N between 107W and 114W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 1009 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07N79W to 12N97W to 12N106W to 17N115W to 1007 mb low pressure near 14N122.5W to 09N137W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 78W and 83W including the Gulf of Panama, from 09N to 12N between 88W and 90W, and from 11N to 13N between 133W and 137W. Also, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 19N to 22N between 104W and 107W, including near Cabo Corrientes. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. While the strongest winds and seas associated with Cristina are forecast to remain away from the coast of Mexico, a swath of fresh to strong E-SE winds will propagate from W of the Tehuantepec region today to just S of Cabo Corrientes by Wed night due to funneling between the tropical cyclone and the Sierra Madre mountain in Mexico. In addition, outer bands of convection of Cristina will likely rotate through the offshore waters and potentially along the coast with squalls and heavy rainfall. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu, retracting as Cristina moves closer to the area. The ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Strong NW winds off of the coast of California are sending fresh northerly swell into the waters N of Punta Eugenia with seas of 8 to 9 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed with seas of 5-7 ft. Expect pulsing fresh to locally strong southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California through Wed as the pressure gradient tightens across the area between the ridge and lower pressures over the lower Colorado River Valley. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the next several days, reaching strong briefly Thu night. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters S of 09N-10N E of 100W. Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft in S-SW swell across the waters through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Cristina. A surface ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 110W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds dominate this area. Fresh northerly swell is propagating across the northern forecast waters. This swell will spread across much of the region N of 20N W of 120W by Wed morning, with building seas of 8-9 ft. A low pressure is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 14N122.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the N semicircle, within 360 nm in the SE quadrant, and within 420 nm in the SW quadrant of the low. An area of fresh to strong winds and 8-10 ft seas will accompany this low. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days while it moves little. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for subsequent gradual development this weekend while the system moves westward well S of the coast of Mexico, and this area has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. $$ Lewitsky