128 AXPZ20 KNHC 070919 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jul 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 11.5N 102.4W at 07/0900 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 270 nm of the center. Strengthening is expected during the next 72 hours, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane well south of the coast of Mexico by Wednesday. Fresh to strong winds and building seas associated with the periphery of Christina are likely to propagate into the offshore waters along with squalls and thunderstorm activity. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 115W from 05N to 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 09N74W to 11N85W to 12N96W, then resumes W of T.S. Cristina from 10N105W to 15N115W to 1008 mb low pressure near 13.5N123W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 106W and 113W, and from 12N to 15N between 116W and 119W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is just E of the low pressure located near 13.5N123W and covers from 13N to 15N between 119W and 123W. Another cluster of similar convection is noted within 150 nm S of the monsoon trough between 125W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on T.S. Cristina. While the strongest winds and seas associated with this new tropical storm are forecast to remain away from the coast of Mexico, a swath of fresh to strong E-SE winds will propagate from just W of the Tehuantepec region today to just S of Cabo Corrientes by Wed night due to funneling between the tropical cyclone and the Sierra Madre mountain in Mexico. Currently, satellite imagery shows a band-like of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection near the coast of Mexico affecting from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to just S-SW of Acapulco. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong E-SE winds within this convective activity. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Strong NW winds off of the coast of California are sending fresh northerly swell into the waters N of Punta Eugenia with seas of 8 to 9 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed with seas of 5-7 ft. Expect pulsing fresh to locally strong southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California through Wed as the pressure gradient tightens across the area between the ridge and lower pressures over the lower Colorado River Valley. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the next several days. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters S of 09N-10N E of 100W. Seas of 7-9 ft will persist over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through early Tue in a mix of E-SE wind waves and swells generated from T.S. Cristina located well W-SW of the area. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on T.S. Cristina. A surface ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 110W. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of moderate to fresh N-NE winds roughly across the waters N of 28N between 120W and 132W. A low pressure is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 13.5N123W. An area of fresh to strong winds and 8-9 ft seas will accompany this low. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days while it moves little. As previously mentioned, fresh northerly swell is propagating across the northern forecast waters. It forecast to spread across much of the region N of 20N W of 120W by Wed morning, with building seas of 8-9 ft. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for subsequent gradual development this weekend while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. $$ GR