000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061546
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jul 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad 1007 mb low pressure area is near 10N99.5W, or several
hundred miles S-SE of Acapulco, Mexico. Convection has increased
in coverage overnight and this morning. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the SE semicircle. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within
360 nm in the NW semicircle. An area of 20-30 kt winds and
associated 8-10 ft seas are found mainly in the SE semicircle of
the low. This low has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation in the next 48 hours. Please, refer to the latest NHC 
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 100W from southern Mexico to 04N, 
moving W at 10-15 kt. Low pressure is along the wave axis, as is 
described above. 

A tropical wave is along 110W from 05N to 18N, moving W at 20-25
kt. Associated convection is described below.

A tropical wave that was previously near 119W is no longer
identifiable.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure near 09N76W to
11N90W to 09N98W to low pressure near 10N99.5W to low pressure 
near 15.5N116.5W to low pressure near 12N124W to 10N140W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within
300 nm S of the axis between 82W and 97W, within 210 nm N of the
axis between 86W and 94W, within 210 nm S of the axis between 
110W and 116W, within 150 nm N of the axis between 117W and 127W,
within 120 nm S of the axis between 124W and 128W, and from 08N 
to 12N between 130W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 02N to 06N between the coast of Colombia and 79W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section for information on developing
low pressure several hundred miles S-SW of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. This weather 
pattern will persist through at least the middle of the week. A 
new swell event from the N will reach the forecast waters N of 
Punta Eugenia late today into tonight, building seas to 8-9 ft. 
This swell event will propagate across the waters N of Cabo San 
Lazaro through Wed with seas of 5-7 ft.

Expect fresh to locally strong southerly winds over the northern
Gulf of California tonight through Wed as the pressure gradient 
tightens across the area between the ridge over the offshore 
waters of Baja California and lower pressures over the lower 
Colorado River Valley. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds 
are expected elsewhere across the Gulf of California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in and downstream of
the Gulf of Papagayo during the next several days. Moderate to 
occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters S of 
09N-10N E of 100W. Seas of 7-8 ft will persist over the offshore 
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through early Tue in a mix 
of swell generated from the developing low pressure well W-SW of
the area, and residual SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section for information on developing
low pressure several hundred miles S-SW of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region.

A surface ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west of 
115W. A pair of 1006 mb low pressure areas are embedded in the 
monsoon trough, one near 15.5N116.5W and the other near 12N124W. 
Both low pressure areas have disorganized showers and
thunderstorms and both have a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation in the next 48 hours. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and low pressure areas will support a large area of 
moderate to fresh trade winds N of the monsoon to about 20N 
between 115W and 130W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds will 
also converge into the southern sides of lows S of the monsoon 
trough roughly between 110W and 125W.

An area of northerly swell generated by a gale event well N of 
the area offshore of California will propagate S of 30N later 
today through mid-week, building seas to 8-10 ft N of 22N between
roughly 120W and 135W.

Long period cross-equatorial S to SW swell dominates most of the
forecast area. This will gradually subside over the next couple 
of days. 

$$
Lewitsky