000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060338 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad low pressure system located several hundred miles south and south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. At 0000 UTC, a 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed near 8.5N96W on the surface map. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico. This area of low pressure has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. This system could bring an increase in winds and seas across the offshore waters of Mexico between Puerto Angel and Cabo Corrientes during the middle to latter part of the week. Looking ahead, global models have this system, possibly as tropical cyclone crossing the Revillagigedo Islands toward the end of the work week, although predictions of potential track and intensity are uncertain at this time. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 96W north of 07N into southern Mexico, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is near the south end of the wave axis at 08.5N96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 95W and 97W. A tropical wave is along 105W north of 07N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 102W and 104W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 117W south of 20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A stationary 1010 mb surface low is just east of the wave axis near 15N115W, along the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 110W and 115W, and from 14N to 16N between 117W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N74W to 11N85W to 1009 mb low pressure near 08.5N96W to 1010 mb low pressure near 15N115W to 1010 mb low pressure near 12N124W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 06N to 09N between 86W and 92W, and from 11N to 15N between 122W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for information on developing low pressure south and south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. This weather pattern will persist through at least the middle of the week. A new swell event from the north will reach the forecast waters north of Punta Eugenia late Mon into Mon night, building seas to 8-9 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed with seas of 5-7 ft. Expect fresh to locally strong southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California early this week as the pressure gradient tightens across the area between the ridge over the offshore waters of Baja California and lower pressures over the lower Colorado River Valley. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the next several days. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters south of 09N-10N E of 100W. Seas of 7-8 ft will persist off Guatemala and El Salvador through mid week in a mix of northerly swell generated from the developing low pressure west of the area, and residual SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section for information on developing low pressure south and south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. A surface ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west of 115W. As previously mentioned, a pair of low pressure areas are noted along the monsoon trough west of 110W. Currently the most prominent of these remains stationary south of Clarion Island near 15N115W. This low is expected to weaken through Mon just as the neighboring low to the west near 12N124W develops slightly into mid week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the low pressure areas will support a large area of moderate to fresh trade winds north of the monsoon, particularly between 115W and 125W. Fresh to strong SW winds will also converge into the southern flanks of lows south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 125W. Long period cross-equatorial S to SW swell across most of the tropical east Pacific Ocean will gradually subside the next couple of days, with sea heights expected to be 5 to 7 ft. $$ GR