000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052139 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2139 UTC Sun Jul 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, along the monsoon trough near 08N98W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves west- northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico. This area of low pressure has a medium probability of tropical cyclone development. Even if this low pressures does not develop into a tropical cyclone, expect increased winds, seas, and thunderstorms across the offshore waters of Mexico between Puerto Angel and Cabo Corrientes during the middle to latter part of the week. Looking ahead to the latter part of the week, global model depictions indicate further development is possible as the low pressure passes through the Revillagigedo Islands, although predictions of potential track and intensity are uncertain at this time. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 95W north of 07N into southern Mexico, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 92W and 100W. A tropical wave is along 104W/105W north of 07N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed along 116W south of 20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A stationary 1007 mb surface low is just east of the wave axis near 15N115W, along the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 117W and 122W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 1010 mb low pressure near 08N98W to 1007 mb low pressure near 15N115W to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N121W to 1014 mb low pressure near 12N130W to 1013 mb low pressure near 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 06N to 10N between 85W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 92W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 13N between 107W and 110W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 117W and 122W. Scattered moderate convection from 07N to 11N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for information on developing low pressure south of Mexico. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. This weather pattern will persist through at least the middle of the week. A new swell event from the north will reach the forecast waters north of Punta Eugenia lat Mon into Mon night, building seas to 8-9 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed with seas of 5-7 ft. Expect fresh to locally strong southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California early this week as the pressure gradient tightens across the area between the ridge over the offshore waters of Baja California and lower pressures over the lower Colorado River Valley. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the next several days. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters south of 09N-10N E of 100W. Seas up to 7 ft will persist off Guatemala and El Salvador through mid week in a mix of northerly swell generated from the developing low west of the area, and residual SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section for information on developing low pressure south of Mexico. A surface ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west of 115W. As previously mentioned, a several low pressure areas are noted along the monsoon trough west of 110W. Currently the most prominent of these remains stationary south of Socorro Island near 15N115W. A recent scatterometer showed winds on the northwest quadrant of this low pressure were barely 20 kt, although winds to 25 kt are still possible. This low is expected to weaken through Mon just as the neighboring low to the west near 13N121W develops slightly into mid week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the low pressure areas will support a large area of moderate to fresh trade winds north of the monsoon, particularly between 115W and 125W. Fresh to strong SW winds will also converge into the southern flanks of lows south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 125W. Long period cross-equatorial S to SW swell across most of the tropical east Pacific Ocean will gradually subside the next couple of days, with sea heights expected to be 5 to 7 ft. $$ Christensen