000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1556 UTC Sun Jul 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 94W north of 03N into SE Mexico, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 14N between 92W and 95W. A tropical wave is along 103W/104W north of 04N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed along 115W south of 20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A 1010 mb surface low is along the wave axis near 14N115W, where the tropical wave intersects the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 113W and 120W. All of this is being supported by a closed upper low near 17N121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 1010 mb low pressure near 09N98W to 1010 mb low pressure near 14N115W to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N120W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N139W. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 14N between 92W and 95W, from 06N to 11N between 94W and 101W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 113W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. This weather pattern will persist through at least the middle of the week. A new swell event from the north will reach the forecast waters north of Punta Eugenia lat Mon into Mon night, building seas to 8-9 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed with seas of 5-7 ft. Expect fresh to locally strong southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California early this week as the pressure gradient tightens across the area between the ridge over the offshore waters of Baja California and lower pressures over the lower Colorado River Valley. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico. This system could bring some increase in winds and seas across the offshore forecast waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the next several days. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters south of 09N-10N E of 100W. Seas are forecast to increase to 7-8 ft across the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala on Mon likely in association with the developing low pressure south of the coast of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west of 115W. As previously mentioned, a couple of low pressure areas are noted along the monsoon trough west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the low pressure areas will support a large area of moderate to fresh trade winds north of the monsoon, particularly between 115W and 125W. Fresh to strong SW winds will also converge into the southern flanks of lows south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 125W. Long period cross-equatorial S to SW swell across most of the tropical east Pacific Ocean will gradually subside the next couple of days, with sea heights expected to be 5 to 7 ft. $$ Christensen