000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050909 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 92W north of 03N into SE Mexico, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is behind the wave axis from 11N to 14N between 88W and 91W. This activity is affecting El Salvador and regional waters. Similar convection is also noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A tropical wave is along 102W/103W north of 04N into southern Mexico, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Some shower activity is noted behind the wave axis, mainly from 07N to 14N between 98W and 101W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 114W south of 18N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A 1008 mb surface low is along the wave axis near 14N114W. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with this broad area of low pressure. Satellite imagery shows a cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection on the east side of the low center, covering from 12N to 15N between 110W and 114W. A recent scatterometer pass provided observations of fresh to strong winds within about 180 nm in the SE quadrant of the low center. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted just S of the Revillagigedo Islands in association with this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N74W to 09N85W to 1010 mb low pressure near 08N96W to 1008 mb low pressure near 14N114W to 1009 low pressure near 14N122W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 90W and 97W, from 13N to 15N between 118W and 122W, from 10N to 12N between 126W and 129W, and from 10N to 12N between 133W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. This weather pattern will persist through at least the middle of the week. A new swell event from the N will reach the forecast waters N of Punta Eugenia lat Mon into Mon night, building seas to 8-9 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed with seas of 5-7 ft. Expect fresh to locally strong southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California early this week as the pressure gradient tightens across the area between the ridge over the offshore waters of Baja California and lower pressures over the SW CONUS. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico. This system could bring some increase in winds and seas across the offshore forecast waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the next several days. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters south of 09N-10N E of 100W. Seas are forecast to increase to 7-8 ft across the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala on Mon likely in association with the developing low pressure south of the coast of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 115W. As previously mentioned, a couple of low pressure areas are noted along the monsoon trough W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the low pressure areas will support a large area of moderate to fresh trade winds north of the monsoon, particularly between 115W and 125W. Fresh to strong SW winds will also converge into the southern flanks of lows south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 125W. Long period cross-equatorial S to SW swell across most of the tropical east Pacific Ocean will gradually subside the next couple of days, with sea heights expected to be 5 to 7 ft. $$ GR