000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050320 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jul 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 89W north of 03N into northern Central America, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce convection from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. A tropical wave is along 101W north of 04N into southern Mexico, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed along 112W south of 18N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A 1008 mb surface low is analyzed along the wave axis near 14N112W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is on the east side of the low from 13N to 15N between 110W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 08N74W to 1010 mb low pressure near 09N95W to 1010 mb low pressure near 14N112W to 1009 mb low pressure near 12N125W to beyond 10N140W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 110W and 112W. Another cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is from 12N to 16N between 115W and 118W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 118W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed on the 0000 UTC surface map near 14N112W. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted just S of the Revillagigedo Islands in association with this system. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. This weather pattern will persist through the middle of the week. A new swell event from the N will reach the forecast waters N of Punta Eugenia lat Mon into Mon night building seas to 8-9 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed with seas of 5-7 ft. Expect fresh to locally strong southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California early this week between building high pressure over north central Mexico and deepening low pressure over the lower Colorado River valley. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico. This could bring an increase in winds and seas across the offshore forecast waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the next several days. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters south of 10N E of 100W. Seas are forecast to increase to 7-8 ft across the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala on Mon likely in association with the developing low pressure south of the coast of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 115W. As previously mentioned, a couple of low pressure systems are noted along the monsoon trough W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the lows will support a large area of moderate to fresh trade winds north of the monsoon trough to about 20N. Fresh to strong SW winds will also converge into the southern flanks of lows south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 125W. Long period cross-equatorial S to SW swell across most of the tropical east Pacific Ocean will gradually subside the next couple of days, with sea heights expected to be 5 to 7 ft. $$ GR