000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2207 UTC Sat Jul 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 88W north of 03N into Central America, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 88W and 100W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 99W/100W north of 02N into southern Mexico, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring near this tropical wave. A tropical wave is analyzed along 110W south of 18N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A surface low is analyzed along the wave axis near 13N110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 105W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 1010 mb low pressure near 09N95W to 15N107W to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N110W to 1011 mb low pressure near 12N125W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N east of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 88W and 100W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 115W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated gap winds a little over 20 kt through the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the result of a tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and a pair of tropical waves passing westward to the south of the region. These winds have likely diminished this afternoon, but fresh gap winds are possible through the early part of the week, mainly during the early mornings, with seas downstream reaching 6 or 7 ft with an added component of longer period southerly swell. Farther north, a ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure near 3N137W to south of Cabo San Lucas. A tropical wave is passing west of 110W, with an attendant 1010 mb surface low along the wave about 300 nm south of Socorro Island. Fresh to strong easterly winds are likely across the eastern Revillagigedo Islands currently with 5 to 7 ft seas. These winds and seas should diminish tonight as the low moves farther west. A few showers beyond 200 nm off the coast of Jalisco and east of low pressure will diminish this evening. The low has a low chance of tropical development. The ridge is maintaining generally moderate NW winds across the waters off Baja California, and light to gentle NW breezes over open waters off Mexico south of 20N. Expect fresh southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California early in the week between building high pressure over north central Mexico and deepening low pressure over the lower Colorado River valley. Northerly swell will increase seas west of northern Baja California early next week as well. Looking ahead toward the middle of the week, broad low pressure is expected to form along the monsoon trough beyond 240 nm off Oaxaca and Guerrero. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week as it moves west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico. This will support fresh easterly winds off Guerrero and Michoacan with seas building to 8 ft, but most of the main impacts of the developing low will remain west of the offshore areas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds will prevail over the waters south of 10N into next week. Moderate to fresh gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo through next week. Long period SW swell will gradually subside across the region through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Long period cross-equatorial S to SW swell across most of the tropical east Pacific Ocean will gradually subside the next couple of days, with sea heights expected to be 5 to 7 ft. Low pressure near 13N110W will shift westward along the monsoon trough through early next week. Ridging will persist north of the low, from 1028 mb high pressure near 37N138W to south of Cabo San Lucas. The tight gradient between these features will support fresh to strong NE winds within 240 nm in the northern semicircle of the low pressure, with seas to 9 ft. A large area of moderate to fresh trade winds will persist north of the monsoon trough to about 20N. Fresh to strong SW winds will also converge into the the southern flanks of low pressure south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 125W. Long period cross-equatorial S to SW swell across most of the tropical east Pacific Ocean will gradually subside the next couple of days, with sea heights expected to be 5 to 7 ft. Looking ahead toward the middle of the week, broad low pressure is expected to form along the monsoon trough near about 12N between 105W and 110W by Tue. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week as it moves west-northwestward. $$ Christensen