000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1552 UTC Fri Jul 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 95W/96W south of 18N, and extends into southern Mexico. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N-12N between 94W-97W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 101W/102W south of 18N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 09N-10N between 100W-105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 1009 mb low pressure located near 10N92W to 1009 mb low pressure near 13N107W to to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N east of 105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 110W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 115W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A trough along 115W from 15N to 22N is the remnant low of T.D. Four-E. It is nearly stationary, and no showers or thunderstorms are noted near this trough. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja California, producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Light to gentle E-SE winds prevail east of the remnant low to the entrance to the Gulf of California. A ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through the weekend, producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas will build to 6-7 ft today as large SW swell propagates into the region. Northerly swell is forecast to reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia early next week. A meandering surface trough is over the Gulf of California. Gentle southerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through the weekend. Winds are expected to increase to 15-20 kt in the northern Gulf early next week as the pressure gradient tightens across NW Mexico. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible through early next week as it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation. This low will increase winds and seas in the far offshore waters between Oaxaca and Michoacan today. Fresh northerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region this weekend, with seas building to 7-8 ft in a mix of northerly wind waves and SW swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh SW to W winds will prevail over the waters S of 10N through the weekend. Long period SW swell is reaching the area, with seas of 6-7 ft building between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and reaching the far offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong ridge will dominate the northern forecast waters today. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the west-central waters, mainly from 10N to 20N west of 130W. Long period S to SW swell reaching the waters S of 10N between 95W and 125W has seas of 8-10 ft from altimeter data. This swell will continue to propagate northward the next couple of days, reaching the offshore forecast waters as previously mentioned. $$ Christensen