000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030915 RRA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 95W north of 01N, and extends into southern Mexico. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N-11N between 92W-96W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 100W/101W north of 01N, and extends into southern Mexico. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 08N-12N between 99W-103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 10N87W to 1010 mb low pressure located near 09N93W to 12N97W to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N105W to 11N113W to 11N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 10N between 78W and 86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 108W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of T.D. Four-E is noted as a swirl of low clouds near 21N114W, nearly stationary. It will continue to weaken and open up into a trough later today. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja California, producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Light to gentle E-SE winds prevail east of the remnant low to the entrance to the Gulf of California. A ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through the weekend, producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas will build to 6-7 ft today as large SW swell propagates into the region. Northerly swell is forecast to reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia early next week. A meandering surface trough is over the Gulf of California. Gentle southerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through the weekend. Winds are expected to increase to 15-20 kt in the northern Gulf early next week as the pressure gradient tightens across NW Mexico. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible through early next week as it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation. This low will increase winds and seas in the far offshore waters between Oaxaca and Michoacan today. Fresh northerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region this weekend, with seas building to 7-8 ft in a mix of northerly wind waves and SW swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh SW to W winds will prevail over the waters S of 10N through the weekend. Long period SW swell is reaching the area, with seas of 6-7 ft building between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and reaching the far offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong ridge will dominate the northern forecast waters today, while the remnant low of T.D. Four-E dissipates. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the west-central waters, mainly from 13N to 18N west of 130W. Long period S to SW swell reaching the waters S of 10N between 95W and 125W has seas of 8-10 ft from altimeter data. This swell will continue to propagate northward the next couple of days, reaching the offshore forecast waters as previously mentioned. $$ Mundell