000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030306 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 85W north of 01N, and extends into Central America. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate is occurring from 04N-18N between 83W-89W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 93W north of 03N, and extends into southern Mexico. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N-12N between 90W-95W. A 1010 mb low pressure is along a tropical wave located along 105W from 02N to 16N. The wave is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-15N between 106W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 1010 mb low pressure located near 12N107W to 09N110W to 10N123W to 11N130W. The ITCZ continues from 11N130W to 14N140W. Outside of convection associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 119W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of T.D. Four-E is noted as a swirl of low clouds near 21N114W, drifting west. It will continue to weaken tonight and open up into a trough by Fri morning. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Light to gentle E-SE winds prevail east of the remnant low to the entrance to the Gulf of California. A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the remainder of the week, producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas will build to 6-7 ft on Fri as large swell from the SW continues to propagate across the forecast region. Northerly swell is forecast to reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia early next week. A meandering surface trough is over the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through the weekend. Winds are expected to increase to 15-20 kt across the northern part of the Gulf early next week as the pressure gradient tightens across NW Mexico. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development is possible through early next week as it moves west-northwest around 10 kt. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Regardless, this system is likely to bring an increase in winds and seas in the offshore waters between Oaxaca and Michoacan on Fri. Fresh northerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region Fri night through Sun. Seas are forecast to build to 7-8 ft in a mix of northerly wind waves and southerly swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh SW to W winds will prevail over the waters S of 10N through the weekend. Long period SW swell is reaching the area, with seas of 6-7 ft building between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and seas of 7-8 ft reaching the edge of the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong ridge will dominate the northern forecast waters on Fri, as the remnant of T.D. Four-E finally dissipates. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the west-central waters, mainly from 13N to 18N west of 130W. Long period S to SW swell is reaching the waters S of 10N between 95W and 125W with building seas of 8-10 ft per altimeter data. This swell event will continue to propagate northward over the next couple of days reaching the offshore forecast waters as previously mentioned. $$ GR