000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022119 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 90W and extends across northern Central America. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N-11N between 89W-94W. A tropical wave is along 97W and extends over southern Mexico, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. A 1010 mb low pressure has developed along the tropical wave previously located along 104W/105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 11N-13N between 103W and 105W, and 11N-15N between 105W and 109W. The low pressure is near 12N104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N74W to 1010 mb low pressure located near 12N104W to 10N120W to 08N133W. The ITCZ then continues from 09N133W to beyond 09N140W. Outside of convection associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed N of 07N between 78W and 81W, including the Gulf of Panama, from 05N to 08N between 83W- 88W, from 06N to 09N between 98W-102W, and 07N to 13N between 120W-127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of T.D. Four-E is still noted in latest imagery as a swirl of low clouds near 21N114W, drifting toward the W. This low will continue to spin down tonight and open up into a trough by Fri morning. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Light to gentle E-SE winds prevail east of the remnant low and extend to Cabo Corrientes and the mouth of the Gulf of California. A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the remainder of the week, producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas will build again to 6-7 ft by Fri as large swell from the SW continues to propagate across the forecast region. A northerly swell event is forecast to reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia early next week. A meandering surface trough is over the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through the remainder of the week. Winds are expected to increase to 15-20 kt across the northern part of the Gulf early next week as the pressure gradient tightens across NW Mexico. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The most recent scatterometer data indicate the broad cyclonic circulation associated with this system. Some gradual development of this low pressure area is possible through early next week while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Regardless, this system is likely to bring an increase in winds and seas across the edge of the offshore forecast waters between the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Michoacan on Fri. Fresh northerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region Fri night through Sun. Seas are forecast to build to 7-8 ft in a mix of northerly wind waves and southerly swells. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh monsoon flow will prevail over the waters S of 10N E of 100W through the next several days. A new set of long period SW swell is reaching the area, with seas of 6-7 ft building between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and seas of 7-8 ft reaching the edge of the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A stronger ridge will dominate the northern forecast waters on Fri, as the remnant of T.D. Four-E finally dissipates. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the west-central waters, mainly from 13N to 18N W of 130W. Long period S to SW swell is reaching the waters S of 10N between 95W and 125W with building seas of 8-10 ft per altimeter data. This swell event will continue to propagate northward over the next couple of days reaching the offshore forecast waters as previously mentioned. $$ GR