795 AXPZ20 KNHC 020917 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 731 UTC Thu Jul 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is entering the far eastern tropical Pacific and is analyzed along 87W extending across Central America and into the NW Caribbean, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring mainly behind the wave, north of 06N and east of 85W, and extends across the SW Caribbean. A tropical wave is along 95W and extends across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring along the monsoon trough from 05.5N to 10N between 88W and 101W, and across the nearshore waters N of 12N between 90W and 95W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 106W and extends to 16N, moving westward at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed near the wave near 12N105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 14.5N between 101W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N74W to 1010 mb low pressure located near 12N105W to 10N128W to 09N129W. The ITCZ then continues from 09N129W to 09N140W. Outside of convection associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 06.5N to 12N between 112W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of T.D. Four-E is still noted in latest imagery as a swirl of low clouds near 21N113W, drifting toward the W. This low continues to spin down tonight and will dissipate on Thu. Elsewhere, high pressure across the NE Pacific extends southeastward to near 24N117W. The pressure gradient across the Baja California waters is producing moderate to fresh northerly winds across the offshore waters from 20N to 30N to the west of the Baja Peninsula and the remnant low. Seas are generally in the 5-7 ft range across these waters. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail east of the remnant low and extend to Cabo Corrientes and the mouth of the Gulf of California. Strong evening convection moving northward away from the Puerto Vallarta area is now along coastal section from San Blas to near Mazatlan and out to 60 nm offshore. A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the remainder of the week, producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas will briefly subside to 4-6 ft on Thu, and build again to 6-7 ft by Fri as large swell from the SW continues to propagate across the forecast region. A meandering surface trough is over the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through the remainder of the week, highest across north portions. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this low pressure area become better organized on Wed, but has diminished since late afternoon. Some further development of the system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Regardless, this system is likely to bring an increase in winds and seas across the edge of the offshore forecast waters between the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Michoacan toward the end of the week. Fresh northerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region Fri through Sun. Seas are forecast to build to 7-8 ft in a mix of northerly wind waves and southerly swells. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh monsoon flow will prevail over the waters S of 10N E of 100W through the next several days. New long period SW swell will reach this area on Thu with seas of 6-7 ft building between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and seas of 7-8 ft reaching the edge of the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A stronger ridge will dominate the northern forecast waters by Thu as the remnant of T.D. Four-E finally dissipates. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh trade winds, particularly from 13N to 20N W of 130W. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range in mixed NE and S swell. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft on Thu. Southerly swell is reaching the waters S of 05N between 105W and 135W with building seas of 8-10 ft. This swell will continue to propagate northward over the next couple of days reaching the offshore forecast waters as previously mentioned. $$ Stripling