000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020329 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 242 UTC Thu Jul 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is entering the far eastern tropical Pacific and is analyzed along 85W extending across Central America and into the NW Caribbean, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Most associated convection is occurring over portions of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and the SW Caribbean. A tropical wave is along 93W and extends across extreme southern Mexico and into the eastern Bay of Campeche, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is mainly occurring east of the wave axis, near the monsoon trough, and along the coastline from Guatemala to the Gulf of Fonseca. A tropical wave is analyzed along 105W and extends to 16N, moving westward at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 12N105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm either side of the axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N74W to 1010 mb low pressure located near 12N105W to 09N113W to 11N130W. The ITCZ then continues from 11N130W to 14N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 05.5N to 10N between 87W and 101W, from 06N TO 12N between 102W and 107W, from 05N TO 11.5N between 113W and 123W, and from 10.5N TO 12.5N between 123W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The cyclonic circulation of the remnant low of T.D. Four-E is still noted in latest imagery as a swirl of low clouds near 21N112.5W. This low will continue to spin down tonight and dissipate on Thu. Elsewhere moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California. A cluster of weak to moderate convection is 60-90 nm offshore of Cabo San Lazaro and shifting slowly NE. Farther south, strong afternoon convection across the Puerto Vallarta area is shifting northward along the coast and out to 60 nm offshore. A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the remainder of the week, producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas of 5-7 ft this evening will briefly subside to 4-6 ft on Thu, and build again to 6-7 ft by Fri as large swell from the SW continues to propagate across the forecast region. A meandering surface trough is over the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through the remainder of the week. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this low pressure area become better organized earlier today, but has diminished since late afternoon. Some further development of the system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Regardless, this system is likely to bring an increase in winds and seas across the edge of the offshore forecast waters between the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Michoacan toward the end of the week. Fresh northerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region Fri through Sun. Seas are forecast to build to 7-9 ft in a mix of northerly wind waves and southerly swells. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh monsoon flow will prevail over the waters S of 10N E of 100W through the next several days. New long period SW swell will reach this area on Thu with seas of 6-7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and seas of 7-8 ft reaching the edge of the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A stronger ridge will dominate the northern forecast waters by Thu as the remnant of T.D. Four-E finally dissipates. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh trade winds, particularly from 14N to 17N W of 134W. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range in mixed NE and S swell. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft on Thu. Southerly swell is reaching the waters S of 05N between 105W and 135W with building seas of 8-10 ft. This swell will continue to propagate northward over the next couple of days reaching the offshore forecast waters as previously mentioned. $$ Stripling