000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012052 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jul 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W/91W and extends from 02N-17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the southern end of the wave axis from 06N to 09N between 88W and 91W. A tropical wave is repositioned along 102W/103W and extends from 02N-17N, moving westward at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 12N102W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 09N to 14N between 100W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 08N84W to 10N95W to 1010 mb low pressure located near 12N102W to 08N110W to 11N120W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10N between 91W and 100W, from 05N to 09N between 111W and 113W, and from 08N to 11N between 119W and 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The cyclonic circulation of the remnant low of T.D. Four-E is still noted in latest scatterometer data while a swirl of low clouds is also observed in the satellite pictures. This low will continue to spin down tonight and dissipate on Thu. Then, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds through the remainder of the week. Seas of 5-7 ft this afternoon will briefly subside to 4-6 ft on Thu, and build again to 6-7 ft by Fri as large swell from the SW continues to propagate across the forecast region. A meandering surface trough is over the Gulf of California and the Baja California Peninsula. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through the remainder of the week. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this low pressure area have become a little better organized today. Some further development of the system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. This may bring an increase in winds and seas across the edge of the offshore forecast waters between the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Michoacan toward the end of the week. Fresh northerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region Fri through Sun. Seas are forecast to build to 7-9 ft in a mix of northerly wind waves and southerly swells. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh monsoon flow will prevail over the waters S of 10N E of 100W through the next several days. A new set of long period SW swell will reach the same area on Thu with seas of 6-7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and seas of 7-8 ft reaching the edge of the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A stronger ridge will dominate the northern forecast waters by Thu as the remnant of T.D. Four-E finally dissipates. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh trade winds, particularly from 14N to 17N W of 134W. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range in mixed NE and S swell. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft on Thu. A southerly swell event is reaching the waters S of 05N between 105W and 135W with building seas of 8-9 ft. this swell event will continue to propagate northward over the next couple of days reaching the offshore forecast waters as previously mentioned. $$ GR