000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011549
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jul 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 89W extending from El Salvador to near
02N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted near the southern end of the wave axis
from 06N to 09N between 87W and 90W.

A tropical wave is along 104W/105W and extends from 02N-17N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen W of the wave axis from 09N to 14N 
between 98W and 104W. A broad area of low pressure appears
associated with this wave,

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to
08N84W to 10N95W to 07N108W, then resumes from 13N110W to 
13N135W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with 
the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 07N to 10N between 90W and 96W, from 06N to
12N between 110W and 113W, and from 08N to 11N between 116W and
120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The remnant low of T.D. Four-E is still noted in satellite 
imagery near 21N113W as a well defined swirl of low clouds. 
Fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are within about 90 nm NW quadrant 
of the low center. This low will continue to spin down today 
with associated winds and seas diminishing. A ridge will build 
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing 
mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds through the remainder of the
week. Seas will gradually subside over the next 24-48 hours from
4-7 ft. 

A meandering surface trough is over the Gulf of California and
the Baja California Peninsula. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly
winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through the remainder
of the week.

Broad low pressure may form S of the Tehuantepec region today 
slowly shifting W-NW along or near the offshore waters outer 
boundary through the remainder of the week and weekend. This may 
bring an increase in winds and seas across the edge of the 
offshore forecast waters between the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Michoacan toward the end of the week.

Fresh northerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region Fri
through Sun. Seas are forecast to build to 7-9 ft with the 
strongest winds.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds will pulse over and downstream of the 
Papagayo region through early today. These winds may assist in 
the development of broad low pressure just W of the area. Seas of
7-9 ft will shift W of the area along with the low.

Moderate to occasionally fresh monsoon flow will prevail over 
the waters S of 10N E of 100W through the next several days. A
new set of long period SW swell will reach the same area on Thu
with seas of 8-9 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N and W of
120W. A set of northerly swell has subsided to less than 8 ft N
of 27N per recent observations.

A stronger ridge will dominate the northern forecast waters by
Thu as the remnant ofT.D. Four-E spins down. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ will support an area of fresh trade 
winds, particularly from 14N to 17N W of 134W. Seas are forecast
to build to 8-9 ft in mixed NE and S swell. 

A southerly swell event is reaching the waters along and just N 
of the equator and W of 120W. Seas of 8-9 ft are forecast to 
dominate much of the forecast waters S of 10N between 100W and 
130W by tonight. This swell event will decay by the end of the 
week.

$$
GR