548 AXPZ20 KNHC 010808 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jul 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is approaching the Pacific coast of Colombia along 78W/79W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N E of 79W to the coast of Colombia. A tropical wave is along 88W from near the Gulf of Fonseca southward to near 01N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 104W/105W and extends from 01N-17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N73W to 10N87W to low pressure near 09N101W to 05N113W, then resumes from 12N110W to low pressure near 12N124W to 09N128W to 13N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N E of 88W, from 06N to 08N between 96W and 100W, from 11N to 17N between 98W and 102W, from 06N to 10N between 100W and 104W, from 04N to 07N between 104W and 100W, from 11N to 16N between 109W and 112W, and from 09N to 11N between 116W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 121W and 125W and from 09N to 11N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of Four-E near 21N113W has fresh winds mainly on the NW side per recent scatterometer data, and remnant seas of 8 ft mainly in background S-SW swell. No significant convection is noted. This low will continue to spin down today with associated winds and seas diminishing and decaying. A ridge will build across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds through the remainder of the week. Seas will gradually subside over the next 24-48 hours from 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will pulse through Thu with s NE-SW oriented surface trough extending from the desert SW U.S. to Baja California Norte. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through the week. Seas of 6-7 ft over the waters between Las Marias Islands and Los Cabos will also subside to 4-5 ft late tonight into Wed. Broad low pressure may form S of the Tehuantepec Region today slowly shifting W-NW along or near the offshore waters outer boundary through the remainder of the week and weekend. This may bring an increase in winds and seas across the edge of the offshore forecast waters between the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Michoacan toward the end of the week. Fresh northerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region Fri night through early Sun. Seas are forecast to build to 7-9 ft with the strongest winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds will pulse over and downstream of the Papagayo region through early today. These winds may assist in the development of broad low pressure just W of the area. Seas of 7-9 ft will shift W of the area along with the low. Moderate to occasionally fresh monsoon flow will prevail over the waters S of 10N E of 100W through the next several days. Long period southerly swell reaching this same area is helping to build seas to 8-9 ft. Seas are forecast to subside to less than 8 ft on Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N and W of 120W. A set of northerly swell has subsided to less than 8 ft N of 27N per recent observations. A stronger ridge will dominate the northern forecast waters by Thu as the remnant of Four-E spins down. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ will support an area of fresh trade winds, particularly between 10N-16N W of 130W. Seas are forecast to build to 8-9 ft in mixed NE and S swell. A southerly swell event is reaching the waters along and just N of the equator and W of 120W. Seas of 8-10 ft are forecast to dominate much of the forecast waters S of 10N between 100W and 130W by Wed night. This swell will decay by the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky