000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010159 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jun 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is approaching the Pacific coast of Colombia along 77W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted over western Colombia and the SW Caribbean Sea to across Panama and Costa Rica and across the Gulf of Panama N of 06N. A tropical wave is along 86W/87W over Nicaragua and central Honduras extending southward to near 01N, moving westward around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 103W and extends from 01N-17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N75W to 10N96W to 06N120W, then resumes near 16N113W to 12N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 16N97W to 12N98W to 10N92W to 10N80W to 06N77W to 03N83W to 06N95W to 05N109W to 14N103W to 16N97W. Similar convection is from 11N to 16N between 108W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of Four-E near 21N113W has fresh winds mainly on the NW side, and remnant seas of 8-9 ft mainly in background S-SW swell. No significant convection is noted. This low will continue to spin down through Wed with associated winds and seas decaying. A ridge will build across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds through the remainder of the week. Seas will gradually subside over the next 48 hours, from 7-9 ft today to 4-6 ft on Thu. Moderate to fresh SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will pulse through Thu with s NE-SW oriented surface trough extending from the desert SW U.S. to Baja California Norte. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through the week. Seas of 6-7 ft over the waters between Las Marias Islands and Los Cabos will also subside to 4-5 ft late tonight into Wed. Broad low pressure may form S of the Tehuantepec Region on Wed slowly shifting W-NW along or near the offshore waters outer boundary through the remainder of the week and weekend. This may bring an increase in winds and seas across the edge of the offshore forecast waters between the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Michoacan toward the end of the week. Fresh northerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region Fri night through early Sun. Seas are forecast to build to 7-9 ft with the strongest winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds will pulse over and downstream of the Papagayo region through Wed. These winds may assist in the development of broad low pressure W of the area by mid-week. Seas will build to 7-9 ft with the pulsing winds and possible low pressure area. Moderate to occasionally fresh monsoon flow will prevail over the waters S of 10N E of 100W through the next several days. Long period southerly swell reaching this same area is helping to build seas to 8-9 ft. Seas are forecast to subside to less than 8 ft on Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N and W of 120W. A set of northerly swell, with seas of 7-8 ft based on earlier altimeter data, continues to propagate across the waters N of 28N between 120W and 135W, and N of 25N W of 120W. Seas are forecast to subside to less than 8 ft by later tonight. A stronger ridge will dominate the northern forecast waters by Thu as the remnant of Four-E spins down. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ will support an area of fresh trade winds, particularly between 10N-16N W of 130W. Seas are forecast to build to 8-9 ft in mixed NE and S swell. Another southerly swell event is reaching the waters along and just N of the equator and W of 120W. Seas of 8-9 ft are forecast to dominate much of the forecast waters S of 10N between 100W and 130W by Wed night. This swell will decay by the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky