000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301542 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jun 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 20.8N 112.9W at 30/1500 UTC moving NW at 2 kt, and this general motion is expected for the next day or two. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Numerous moderate convection is noted between 90 nm and 180 nm in the NE quadrant of the low center. A large area of seas of 8-10 ft primarily in SW swell surrounds the tropical depression, forecast to become a remnant low later today, and dissipate by Thu morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 84W crossing Costa Rica and extending southward to near 02N. It is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 82W and 86W. A tropical wave is along 100W/101W and extends from near Acapulco, Mexico to 02N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 98W and 102W. A tropical wave is along 140W from 02N to 20N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed where the wave meets the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 09N90W to 10N98W to 05N110W, then resumes at 12N117W to 12N130W to 09N140W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are seen from 05N to 08N between 78W and 80W, including the entrance to the Gulf of Panama. Similar convection is also noted from 05N to 08N between 86W and 89W, and within about 90 nm S of the monsoon trough between 90W and 102W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 12N to 15N between 92W and 96W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section regarding Tropical Depression Four-E. A meandering surface trough is over the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail through the week. Seas will subside to 1-2 ft in the northern part of the Gulf this afternoon. Seas of 6-7 ft over the waters between Las Marias Islands and Los Cabos will also subside to 4-5 ft late tonight into Wed. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds prevail along with 4-7 ft seas primarily in southerly swell. Little change is forecast through the week, except in the Tehuantepec region where a gap wind event is expected Fri night through Sat night. Northerly winds will increase to 20-25 kt, resulting in building seas of 7-9 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse over and downstream of the Papagayo region through Wed. These winds may assist in the development of broad low pressure by mid-week which will shift W-NW of the area toward the end of the week. Seas will build to 7-9 ft with the pulsing winds and low pressure area. Moderate to occasionally fresh monsoon flow will prevail over the waters S of 10N E of 100W through the week. Long period southerly swell reaching this same area is helping to build seas to 8-9 ft. Seas are forecast to subside to less than 8 ft on Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N and W of 120W. A set of northerly swell, with seas of 8-10 ft based on altimeter data, is propagating across the waters NW of a line from 30N120W to 25N130W to 24N140W. This swell event will continue to spread E-SE across the forecast region today subsiding by tonight. Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal flow is noted per scatterometer data W of 115W. Another southerly swell event will reach the waters N of the equator and W of 120W later today. Seas of 8-9 ft are forecast to dominate much of the forecast waters S of 10N between 100W and 130W by Wed night. This swell will decay by the end of the week, however winds S of the monsoon trough will freshen between 95W and 110W helping to support continued 8-10 ft seas S of 12N to the equator. An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles south of the coast of Mexico later this week. Gradual development of the system will be possible by the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 10 kt well south of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. $$ GR