000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300218 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jun 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 20.5N 112.6W at 30/0300 UTC moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the NE quadrant of the low with additional scattered moderate and isolated strong convection elsewhere from 12N to 21N between 107W and 114W. A large area of seas to 9 ft in S-SW swell surrounds the low center. The depression is forecast to maintain through Tue, then will become a remnant low by Tue night, dissipating by early Thu. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 82W near the Costa Rica/Panama border extending southward to near the equator, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 80W and 83W. A tropical wave is along 98W, with a 1010 mb low pressure along the wave axis near 09N98W. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 92W and 100W. A tropical wave extends from 02N to 20N with axis near 138W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed where the wave meets the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to low pressure near 09N98W to 07N103W to 16N107W to low pressure near 20.5N112.5W to low pressure near 17N117W to 12N123W to 12N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 88W and 90W, from 06N to 09N between 99W and 104W, and within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 126W and 140W. In addition, Scattered thunderstorms are noted across inland portions of Central America and western Colombia extending into SE Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section regarding Tropical Depression Four-E. A trough extends across the northern part of the Gulf of California from 32N114W to 30N115W. S to SW winds in the 20 to 25 kt range are expected ahead of the trough during the next 6-12 hours with seas briefly building to 7 or 8 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate onshore winds prevail along with 4-7 ft seas primarily in southerly swell. Little change is forecast through the week, except in the Tehuantepec region where a gap wind event is expected Fri night through Sat night. Northerly winds will increase to 20-30 kt, resulting in building seas of 7-9 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse over and downstream of the Papagayo region through Wed. These winds may assist in the development of broad low pressure by mid-week which will shift W-NW of the area toward the end of the week. Seas will build to 7-9 ft with the pulsing winds and low pressure area. Moderate to occasionally fresh monsoon flow will prevail over the waters S of 10N E of 100W through the week. Long period southerly swell reaching this same area is helping to build seas to 8-9 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N and W of 120W. A set of northerly swell, with seas of 7-9 ft propagating across the waters N of 27N. This swell event will continue to spread E-SE across the forecast region through Tue, subsiding thereafter. Fresh to locally strong monsoonal flow is noted per scatterometer data W of 120W, likely enhanced by convection on the south side of the monsoon trough in this area. Another southerly swell event will reach the waters N of the equator and W of 120W by late Tue. Seas of 8-9 ft are forecast to dominate much of the forecast waters S of 10N between 100W and 130W by Wed night. $$ Lewitsky